Last month, in late June, there were large-scale military maneuvers near Sarajevo in Bosnia. Many Serbs thought this a prelude to an invasion across the frontier, into independent Serbia. Attending the maneuvers, representing the Emperor, was Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand, heir apparent to the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

On Sunday, the 28th, the Arch Duke and his wife paid an official visit to Sarajevo. A bomb was thrown by a Bosnian Serb, a member of the Black Hand Secret Society sworn to liberate all Serbians everywhere. The attack miscarried. The official visit continued. There was a second attack. The alleged assassin, a Bosnian Serb student Gavrilo Princip also a Black Hand, was arrested, but the heir to the empire and his wife were dead.

Another assassination in the Balkans and yet another major political assassination to add to those of last year when the president of Mexico and the king of Greece were murdered. This time, is there anything more to it than the just the passing headlines this summer? In fact the Arch Duke was not a popular figure, and life seems to be going on as usual. It’s turning out to be a beautiful, hot summer.

Even the Emperor has resumed his hunting. The German Kaiser, too, is on holiday. Kaiser Wilhelm II, Emperor of Germany, is now cruising in the North Sea and the president of the French Republic, Poincare, is paying a state visit to the Tsar of Russia, a close ally of France.

News is coming in, however, that share prices seem to be falling in Vienna and Berlin. Even though the threat of trouble from the Balkans is nothing new, as the British cartoonist Dyson showed us last year, indeed Slav nationalism has become an increasing threat to the stability of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Over the centuries, the Empire has acquired more and more territory.

The result is that many nationalities with different interests are citizens of the Empire--12,000,000 are Germans, 10,000,000 are Magyars all the Slav races together number 23,000,000, 46% of the entire population of the Empire; 3,500,000 Rumanians, and there are 750,000 Italians.

Established order is increasingly being challenged by those who live and work outside its charmed circle. Even if it takes violence, Slav nationals want to assert themselves, end? Slavism they call it. They now seem to have active encouragement from the independent Slav nation states on or near the very border of the Empire where Serbs and Bulgarians are ruling themselves.

This is King Ferdinand of Bulgaria. The recent assassination, shocking evidence of the strength of Slav nationalist feeling.

The Balkans, this troubled area of Europe--a German cartoonist sees it like this, the Balkans once formed part of the Turkish Empire, but as Turkey’s power has declined over the past century and she has faced defeats, some of her former provinces have become independent states. Others have been taken over by stronger neighbors.

In 1907, this was the extent of Turkey in Europe, with Bosnia administered by Austria. A year later, Austria deliberately took Bosnia over entirely plus neighboring Herzegovina, thus blocking Serbia off from access to the Adriatic Sea. But most dangerous of all, has been Russia, the most powerful Slav nation. The Tsar is the traditional protector of his fellow Slavs and all Orthodox Christians. Russia has been keenly interested in what has been happening in the Turkish Empire, wanting to keep her right of access through the straights, Dardenelles, past Constantinople to the Mediterranean, giving her all-year-round access to the warm water ports.

Two years ago war did break out in the Balkans when Serbia, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Greece formed the Balkan League to attack Turkey and seize more land inhabited by Slav nationals. In the background was Russia with advice and encouragement for fellow Slavs. Last year, there was even a Second Balkan War, when the Balkan League fought among themselves over territorial gains. As a result, Serbia, the most nationalist state, has almost doubled in size.

Austria asked her ally Germany for help to stop Serbia getting more territory. Fortunately, the British Foreign Secretary’s proposals for an International Conference were accepted rather than the tread decisions of war. So will it be any different now?

Europe has enjoyed more than 40 years of peace without any major incident since Germany defeated France in 1871. The balance of power has been kept by a system of alliances and ententes between the great powers which has developed over the past 30 years. The Central Powers, Germany, Austro-Hungary, and Italy, are now in line together as the Triple Alliance. France and Russia, Great Britain and France, and Great Britain and Russia have all reached mutual understandings where their interests are concerned and now form a Triple Entente.

In spite of political tension, such as last year in the Balkans when trouble boiled up again, as this cartoon shows, the peace has held between the great powers. But there are new powers challenging the world leaders--countries like Japan, who defeated Russia so convincingly in 1905, and, especially there is the United States with her fast-growing economy.

These countries are forging ahead and overtaking countries like Britain and Germany in industrial production with their new production techniques, such as this Ford production line. German industries are meeting the challenge with vast industrial concerns like Krupps growing ever more powerful. Theirs is the largest armaments factory in the world.

And in the new industries, like chemicals, electrical goods, and motor cars, Germany has become the European leader. The German Kaiser has made it clear, by aggressive diplomacy and by the encouragement of economic growth, the industrialist Krupp? is a close friend.

The Kaiser has shown that he wants Germany to take the lead and form a kind of European economic block to outmatch Russia, the United States, and the British Empire--as this propaganda poster shows. It is, however, Russia that may be the great power of the future with her vast resources like oil, and Germany knows this. In the past Russia has often been written off as backward, but now, here too industry is booming--aided by massive foreign investment.

Russia’s armed forces are improving fast. Last year, the law known as the Great Program went through all its stages at St. Petersburg and in the last financial year, Russia has spent more on her army than has Germany. In particular, the railway system is to be built up to deliver troops faster to the front. the gauge of the tracks is already deliberately of a different size from those in neighboring countries to hinder any invasion--150,000,000 roubles are earmarked for this development.

Russian mobilization speeds are increasing fast. In 1910, 250 trains could move west every day. This year, the figure will reach 360. By 1917, it will be 560. But this month’s edition of Bradshaw’s Continental Guide shows at a glance that it is Germany that has already built up a vast, efficient railway system, especially in recent years, converging on the border with Belgium near Aix La Chapelle.

Nevertheless, there has been panic in Germany over the growing threat from Russia and that is in spite of great displays of military power under the eye and concern of the Emperor himself. There are detailed training programs and maneuvers. The cavalry practice crossing the Rhine. Since March there has been a press war between Berlin and St. Petersburg, and the Russian War Minister himself has written a press article saying, "Russia is Ready."

But all the powers have looked to their military strength. These are Italian troops. An American envoy is reported as saying recently, "It is militarism run mad." Dyson’s cartoon last year asks the same question.

Great Britain has a vast Empire to control. She has well-trained troops with experience overseas dealing with insurgence in her Empire, and wars against the Boers in South Africa gave the military sharp lessons in military tactics.

Practice on maneuvers keep the army ready for action. Alone of all the European powers, there is no compulsory military conscription in Britain--only volunteers. The French, perhaps with Russia’s help, have one day to win back from Germany their lost provinces, Alsace and Lorraine on their eastern border. But although the French Army is good, it’s smaller than the Germany Army. As the population of France is hardly rising, the numerical gap with Germany is growing all the time.

Each power has seemed determined to keep pace with the others. The trouble is, what does keep pace mean? Does it involve developing the armed forces as much as the state’s budget and resources allow? Or does it rather involve doing what everyone else is doing? In this, the Germans are in the worst situation. The Germans, in effect, have been running two arms races--one arms race, mainly military, with France and Russia. The other, naval with Great Britain. At first, they concentrated on the naval race for the first navel build in 1898.

"If they had a great navy," said its organizer Admiral Tirpitz, "they could force the British to help them gain a world empire. The alternative for Britain would be to face a naval battle with Germany."

In 1906, the Dreadnought, first all-big-gun turbine propelled battleship, was launched by Britain. It made all earlier battleships obsolete. In 1908, Tirpitz was allowed to build more ships over a shorter period, thus threatening to out-build the Royal Navy. The British protested because this has touched them at a most sensitive point. A vast number of ships are needed to defend the empire and, as a matter of principle, the navy must be equal in strength to that of the next two naval powers. If Germany’s navy expanded, so must Britain’s. Attempts at comprise failed; and in 1911, Tirpitz won the Kaiser’s agreement for a new tempo of three--that is three new battleships to be built in every year.

The widened Kiel Canal was opened last month, giving German ships greater access to the North Sea. But still, Britain stays far ahead in the naval race. Last month saw the spithead reviewed by George V. Is not such an array of might a deterrent to war? In fact, as long ago as 1897, a Polish banker Ivan Block wrote a book about the modern weapons and modern warfare in which he stated that "another war was impossible; such was the power of modern weapons." But in this same year, the British cartoonist Sigh showed France with a new gun, Russia with a new friend, and Germany with dreams and asked "is it peace or?"

There is unease still during these beautiful summer days--life today is not what it was. The pace has quickened, often alarmingly. The American Diplomat Henry Adams wrote 14 years ago that "the age of the dynamo is upon us. The period is in full swing and, gee wacky, how it’s going!"

Even art and music seemed disjointed. Picasso, the up-and-coming Spanish artist, has a new style which gives a challenging view of the world. Some women, with their demands for the vote and more personal freedom, are giving cause for concern. The railways have shrunk distances. Via the Trans-Siberia Railway, even the Pacific Coast can be reached in about nine days, and the railways have brought more and more people into the cities.

St. Petersburg is the fastest-growing city in Europe. The new industries are luring people into the cities. City slums have grown worse, be they in France, Germany, Russia, or Britain. Socialism is spreading. Today, the Socialist Party is the biggest political group in the German Reichstag. Trade unionism is growing and urges loyalties that are international--not national. The Communist International calls on workers everywhere to unite and ignore what they see as narrow, national interests dominated by Capitalists. The "have’s" are being challenged by the "have nots."

Remember, although the Russian revolution in 1905 was quickly crushed and the leaders exiled, should it be taken as a warning for the future? Will countries seek a way out of their domestic difficulties by turning to war, as Russia did in 1904 against Japan? Just how secure, anyway, is the balance of power today. Germany feels hemmed in by the ententes and threatened by Britain, in spite of common interests in trade, in banking, and ties of blood. The Kaiser is cousin to George V and often visits Britain. In spite of his love of marshal display, just how seriously should we take the Kaiser’s ambitions to rule a German-dominated Europe, capable of being a world power alongside the British Empire and the United States?

It is rumored that Germany has pledged support for Austria if she acts. Will Austria seize the opportunity to deal with Soviet’s growing threat to her empire once and for all, after the shocking murder by an assassin apparently trained by Serbians? All ready, one of her cartoonists asking, "Unhappy Austria, what do you do now? Is there room to maneuver in a Europe so full of armaments and divided into rival camps or will countries by dragged into war?"

One thing seems certain to the British man in the street, Britain need not be involved in these European squabbles over distant Balkan countries. Her deterrent seemed sure.