South Africa's political parties are going through a of change and adjustment as the country moves inexorably towards a long and arduous pre-1999 election campaign.

AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (ANC)

Summary:

The ANC is riding the crest of the political wave. With 62% of popular support, the party is unchallenged as South Africa's most popular movement. With little sign of any split or serious ructions, the ANC has continued, following 1994 to consolidate its political power and patronage. The party has fared well in government thus far and has succeeded in stabilising the inflation rate and introducing a liberalisation of South Africa's once draconian Exchange Control regulations. However, there remains some conflict within the ANC regarding implementing the RDP and/or GEAR economic policies. In terms of delivery on RDP promises which were the backbone of its 1994 election campaign, the party has been considerably less successful. Housing remains a major problem with little likelihood of meeting self-imposed deadlines. The ANC may also be criticised in its lack of commitment to fighting rising crime in South Africa. Overall, the party is now exerting its authority through positioning supporters in former parastatals and major corporations. President Mandela continues to be the most popular leader in the country among all South Africans and the party continues to be viewed by the majority of its supporters as the revered liberation movement which fought off the ravages of apartheid.

Future View

Watch for continued strains in the ANC/COSATU alliance. Expect increasing friction between the pro-Unionist faction and the more pragmatic economic liberals within the party. While there is no imminent split, divisions are occurring that might sew the seeds of a split in years to come. Watch for the increasing role of Vice President Mbeki as he asserts his authority in the run-up to choosing a new leader of the party at the end of the year. Watch for the jockeying for position of key personalities in the run-up to 1999 and the role of Mbeki is promoting supporters and demoting enemies as well as questioning and even stifling opposition. Future leaders include Mathews Phosa and Joel Netshitenzhe.

NATIONAL PARTY

Summary:

The former party of Apartheid has had its own annus horribilis in 1997. The party is facing a distinct decline in the opinion polls and has been racked by internal tensions and resignations including that of once heir apparent Reolf Meyer. Although it has now recovered from a mass of resignations, the NP remains confused in seeking to grow its support base. With little black support and on-going coloured backing in the Western Cape, the party is increasingly becoming a regional political entity. The NP has also struggled in its new-found role as Official Opposition following its exit from the Government of National Unity. De Klerk himself has come under fire from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission for his role as President and Commander in Chief during the apartheid years and he has been severely discredited in the media. Severely damaged, the NP is now raising critical issues inside parliament and slowly adapting to the role of being a questioning and innovative opposition party. However, its history and internal divisions count against it in the immediate future.

Future View:

The NP is increasingly likely to become a regional party with its power base firmly in the Western Cape. To this end, watch for threats to secede from the rest of South Africa. The party now has more coloured supporters than white and will be forced to address this in its leadership profile. It is also likely that the party will become more conservative in outlook campaigning on an anti-abortion and pro-death penalty ticket. Expect party bosses to continue with efforts to seek realignments under a new banner. If this does not come to pass, expect an increasing alienation from the Gauteng NP to the Western Cape formations of the party. De Klerk has himself been discredited by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission but there are few charismatic successors waiting in the wings. However, the party remains the second largest in South Africa and whilst in decline, remains a formidable political force. The defection of 10 NP Councillors in the Pretoria City Council to the New Movement of Roelf Meyer confirms the ongoing malaise of the NP outside the Western Cape. While the NP elected a solid reformer to replace Meyer as NP provincial leader, its white support base in Gauteng is feeling increasingly frustrated at the NP's inability to break out of its narrow support mould. The latest resignations are a shock to the NP and may precipitate further defections in other councils across the country.

INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY (IFP0)

Summary:

The IFP remains a powerful force in the province of KwaZulu Natal. Recent local government results in that province confirms this trend. However, the IFP have lost substantial support amongst White and Indian voters. In addition, IFP support nationally has all but dissipated and the party now has little formal organisation outside of its key support base of Zulu's in the KwaZulu Natal hinterland. More serious, however, is the party's loss of popular electoral support amongst Zulu's on the urban areas of both Durban and Pietermaritzburg. These losses are the gain of the ANC. The continuing political unrest in KwaZulu Natal has largely contributed to a frustration with the IFP as the dominant party in that province. A rather lacklustre performance in Parliament is offset by the IFP's continued participation in the Government of National Unity and the charismatic leadership of Chief Buthelezi himself.

Future View

Watch out for an IFP racked with an ever-increasing dilemma - to move closer to the ANC in order to form an alliance or to keep its distance as a regional opposition party. Pressures are already to bear (from the ANC) on the IFP to move towards the ANC in an effort to diffuse opposition from Inkatha. Expect the IFP to continue its decline nationally and to shed more supporters to the ANC in its home province leaving the party tense and dissatisfied in its inability to command new support. Should Chief Buthelezi retire or resign, there are few charismatic leaders likely to command the same following. Watch for an IFP keen on a political realignment to escape the problem of declining support. Watch too for potential splits as the party grapples with these issues.

FREEDOM FRONT/ VRYHEIDSFRONT

Summary:

Born out of the white far-right, the FF stands at a crossroads. To go it alone as a political entity means certain death as the days of whites-only political movements fade away. The FF continues to propound, albeit vaguely now, a return to some sort of white homeland or "volkstaat" - a political concept well past its sell-by-date. However, as a right wing party, the FF have continuously engaged the ANC-led government in constructive opposition and have succeeded in performing admirably as a classic opposition party. A pragmatic approach from General Constand Viljoen has made him one of the most respected white political leaders outside the ANC. However, a dwindling ethnic-Afrikaner support base does not bode well for the party in the run-up to the next election.

Future View:

Expect the FF to decline in public support as their local government results from 1996/6 indicate. Major defections of supporters back to the NP or other mainstream political parties (other than the ANC) may be expected. Some fallout from the Truth and Reconciliation hearing may damage the party. The overall decline in the fortunes of the white right wing is negatively affecting this party.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP) 

Summary:

Given its atrocious 1994 election results, the DP has bounced back as a political entity under the dynamic leadership of Tony Leon. However, the party continues to reflect a very narrow support base of middle-income whites. It is the inability of the party to break out of this narrow mould that severely affects its popular support at the polls. The DP has been encouraged by a recent local government by-election in which the party defeated the NP in a NP stronghold. Local government elections also showed the DP making some gains - particularly in Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal. With the prospect of new allegiances and realignments, the DP will continue to pursue an independent Liberal course but will seek out like-minded political figures for further negotiation. The party refused an offer from President Mandela to join the ANC and has also rejected overtures from the NP. The DP has met with the IFP and continues to be courted due to its tenacious and effective style of opposition.

Future View:

The DP will not be untouched by future developments in opposition politics. Should new parties emerge and realignments come to the fore, expect the DP to seek out an alliance/merger where their basic values are protected. Expect Tony Leon to continue to be a force in South African politics despite the relatively small size of the party. Like the NP, expect the DP to struggle to win any meaningful black support. Expect the DP to continue to reflect the view of South Africa's influential business community in an increasing drive to augment privatisation and curb the powers of trade unions. The party will be seen to show growth at all opportunities to enhance its value in any reshuffling of opposition politics.

PAN AFRICANIST CONGRESS (PAC)

Summary:

Racked by financial constraints, improprieties and internal party bickering, the PAC is now desperately trying to rejuvenate itself. The party's new leader, Stanley Mogoba, has been well received and is regarded with some esteem. The party has set about ridding itself of the extremist elements that so negatively affected its 1994 election results. Formerly militant members have calmed their rhetoric and the party is today playing a far more constructive role in and outside parliament. Notwithstanding these facts, the PAC is still unable to attract any large scale support away from the ANC. While opinion polls show a rising level of dissatisfaction with the ANC, support for the PAC has only grown marginally. The party is simply too small with too few symbols of the struggle to attract meaningful quantities of black voters.

Future View:

Expect the PAC to continue to move closer in ideology towards the ANC. Expect it to shed its radical image. Watch for new attempts by the ANC to co-opt the PAC in an effort to unify the parties of the liberation years. Look for PAC attempts ANC voters in a desperate attempt to remain viable after 1999. The party remains largely insolvent and unless it can solve its severe funding problems, it might well disappear from the political scene. On the other hand, if it can remain afloat, it might become an attractive option for a limited number of frustrated ANC voters.

AFRICAN CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Summary:

The only "new" political party in parliament having been formed just before the 1994 election, the ACDP continue to propound a mixture of democratic politics with a Christian fundamentalist message. Although the party receives financial and organisational support from influential Church groups, its message of a linked State and Church has only proved marginally popular. Given the strong links of the old National Party to the Dutch Reform Church, South Africans of all religions are not keen to link Church and State again. The ACDP fared poorly in local government elections in 1995/6 and picked up a handful of seats nationally. Nevertheless, the Party provides an often high-profile alternative view and has recently taken a strong anti-abortion stand, in sharp opposition to the ANC. This party is also in favour of the reimposition of the death penalty which is overwhelmingly supported by most South Africans but is rejected by the majority ANC.

Future View:

Expect the ACDP to remain active in promoting its name and ideals. The party is likely to enjoy a small but loyal following although the next election will be a make or break event.

NEW MOVEMENT

Summary:

In an unlikely alliance, former ANC rising star Holomisa and NP crown prince Meyer have teamed up to launch their own political party in late September. This new party has, as yet, no clear ideology or set of policies/principles. Meyer and Holomisa yet to articulate their own vision for South Africa and the party has been slow off the ground. Early signs indicate that both leaders will have difficulty in coming to terms with their own individual approach to party politics. The party will need financial backing and is likely to continue efforts to split boththe NP and ANC for its own gain. Critical to its success is any ability to attract meaningful black support and it is questionable whether Holomisa will be to bring in numbers - other than his limited support base in former Transkei homeland. At the very least, this will be the first new post-1994 political party withoutspecific ethnic loyalties formed and is to be welcomed as such.

Future View:

The notion of Holomisa and Meyer as strange bed-fellows points tof both men not having anything substantial in common; but rather ateaming up of twopotentially charismatic individuals in a mutual quest to shake-up theirformer parties and in so doing, create apolitical realignmentin the country. Watch for some tension between the leadershipstyle of Holomisa and Malan as they attempt to weave a united ideological stance. Watch for ANC and NP attempts to scuttle the formation process. Watch for a desire on the part of the new movement to create alliance with other parties like the DP. Potential pitfalls remain financial constraints and a lack of organisationalability throughout the large geographic spread of the country.

Latest: Meyer will be encouraged by the almost mass defection of 10 NP Pretoria City Councillors to his new movement. Although limited to white supporters, this attests to his popularity within the greater Gauteng region. He will be looking for other similar defections countrywideto give his new movement a much-needed boost.

Copyright © 1997 Daniel Silke. All rights reserved. Adopted from the south Africa webpage.

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